Despite the fact that many have heard of expected value betting, those that actually apply it to their bets are far fewer. That is why Campeonbet has crafted this guide, that contains everything you need to know about expected value and why it’s important for your overall betting experience.
What Is Expected Value in Betting?
One of the key things you need to do in order to become a successful bettor is to understand how Expected value works. This fundamental principle is used to determine the average outcome of a bet if it were to be placed repeatedly over a long time period. In other words, EV shows how much you can expect to win or lose if you were to place the same bet on identical events, over and over again.
The EV Formula Explained
The formula for calculating EV might seem overwhelming for some, but it is actually relatively easy. Players simply have to multiply their win probability by the amount they could win and subtract the probability of loss multiplied by the amount lost. So, it should look like this:
EV = (Win Probability × Win Amount) – (Loss Probability × Loss Amount)
To give you a better understanding of the formula, let’s take a look at each component separately:
- Win Probability: This component is essentially the chance that the bet will win, and it is usually expressed as a decimal or a percentage.
- Win Amount: As the name suggests, this is the profit that a player will earn if the bet is successful, based on the odds
- Loss Probability: As opposed to “win probability”, this component is the chance that the bet will lose.
- Loss Amount: This amount is how much a bettor stands to lose, which is usually the original stake.
Positive vs Negative EV
When it comes to football betting, every bettor is set for long-term success. In order to achieve this, understanding the difference between the concepts of a positive (+EV) and a negative (-EV) expected value is of great importance.
Positive EV means that the bet placed is expected to turn in a profit in the long run, while in the case of the negative EV the odds don’t justify the risk and there are definitely long-term losses to be expected. The key takeaway from understanding the distinction between the two is that positive EV is where the edge lies.
What Is a +EV Bet?
A bet with a +EV means that, if the same bet were to be placed repeatedly under the same conditions, it would produce a profit over time. In short, for a bet to be considered a positive EV bet, the probability of cashing on the bet is higher than the odds implied by the price of that bet.
By consistently seeking bets with positive expected values over the long run, you can strategically manage risk and maximize returns in real-life betting scenarios.
This concept is crucial for bettors aiming to make informed decisions based on mathematical expectations. A good trick you can use is to always look for positive EV bets where your potential winnings outweigh the risk.
What Is an -EV Bet?
Some things are just the other side of the same coin, so now it is time to examine the concept of the negative expected value (-EV). This crucial concept is very important to grasp in order to stay profitable in sports betting, because it represents scenarios where the long-run average value of an investment is less than the initial stake.
In other words, a negative expected value occurs when the odds provided do not accurately reflect the true probability of an outcome. Casual bettors often place these bets without conducting proper analysis, which can lead to substantial losses over time.
Calculating EV Step-by-Step
So, now that we have laid all the groundwork, we believe that you should take the next step in understanding how to calculate the expected value. For this reason, Campeonbet has created the following step-by-step walkthrough that will transform your betting strategy from guesswork to a decision-making procedure.
Identify the Odds and Stake
The first step in calculating the expected value is to identify the odds that are offered by the bookmaker and decide on the stake that you plan on placing.
Odds represent the bookmaker’s estimation of an event’s outcome, and they are often expressed in one of three formats: decimal, fractional, or moneyline. After you have decided on the type of odds you will bet on, you have to determine the stake. Consistently using a predetermined stake amount is very important when calculating the EV because it allows you to focus on the actual value of the bet itself.
Estimate True Probability of the Outcome
Once you have identified the odds and chosen your stake, the next step is to estimate the true probability of the outcome. This might seem a bit tricky because it requires the bettor’s own assessment of how likely an outcome is to occur, offering an unbiased view without any bookmaker adjustments or added margins.
To accurately estimate true probability, several methods can be employed, such as analyzing relevant statistics, like recent performance, goals scored, expected goals, and others. In addition, a good way to estimate probability is to look at markets across multiple bookmakers to identify any discrepancies.
Apply the EV Formula
The next step in estimating the expected value is to apply the EV formula:
EV = (Win Probability × Win Amount) – (Loss Probability × Loss Amount)
As we have already established, this mathematical calculation is what enables bettors to assess whether their bets have long-term profit potential. For this reason, it’s highly recommended that you always calculate the EV before placing a bet.
Interpret the Result (Positive vs Negative EV)
Now that we have established the theoretical principles of EV, it’s time to see how all this would play out, using an example from a football match between Enyimba FC and Rangers International.
- Odds offered by the bookmaker: 2.50 for Enyimba to win
- Stake: ₦1,000
- Estimated true probability of Enyimba winning: 45% or (0.45)
- Implied probability: 1 / 2.50 = 0.40 (40%)
- Win profit: (2.50 – 1) x ₦1,000 = ₦1,500
- Loss probability: 1 – 0.45 = 0.55
- EV Calculation: EV = (0.45 × ₦1,500) – (0.55 × ₦1,000)
EV = ₦675 – ₦550 = ₦125
As you can see from the example above, the expected value of ₦125 is positive, which makes it a value bet. What this means is that if you were to place this particular bet again and again under the same conditions, then the expected average profit per bet would be ₦125.
However, you should always remember that one bet does not tell the whole story, and in this case, there is no guarantee that Enyimba will actually win. EV is about consistent long-term decision making and not individual results.
Using Value Betting for Market Selection
The growth of sports betting has also resulted in major leagues and popular events often having well-calibrated odds due to heavy scrutiny. However, EV is not just useful for picking winners in single match markets, but rather a way to explore all types of football bets.
Sports betting is an industry that is always evolving, featuring some of the most popular markets including Over/Under totals, Both Teams to Score, 1X2, but also other markets like first goal scorer, corners, red cards and more.
By applying the EV principle and using data analysis and your stats research, bettors can enjoy a more flexible approach, allowing them to diversify their betting experience.
EV in Props and Player Specials
Lesser-known leagues may indeed be less known for several reasons, but that doesn’t mean they should be considered secondary at all. Applying the EV principle in betting markets like Props and Player Specials could prove to be a “goldmine” for sharp bettors. That is because such markets often receive less attention from bookmakers, thus resulting in offering mispriced odds. However, the key here is to combine thorough research with disciplined staking, because even in niche markets, doing your homework is what does the trick.
Calculating EV for Parlays (Accumulators)
A parlay bet is a type of wager that is placed on multiple outcomes (or else legs). To win a parlay, all selections (legs) within the bet must be correct. Because of this increased risk, parlays offer higher payouts compared to single bets.
Parlays (also known as accumulators) are popular in sports betting because they offer the potential for large payouts from small wagers. However, they usually have a negative expected value (EV) for the bettor. Let’s explore why that is, and under what conditions parlays might not be negative EV.
Parlays usually have a negative EV (-EV), and there are some reasons behind it:
- Vig Adds Up: Since sportsbooks take a vig on each bet, the vig compounds across multiple selections, reducing overall expected value. Vig (Vigorish) is the fee or commission that a bookmaker charges for placing a bet.
- Lower Probability of Winning: Each additional leg decreases the chance of the bet winning. Even if each individual bet has a positive EV, the probability of hitting all selections is much lower.
- Odds Inflation: While payouts seem attractive, sportsbooks inflate odds so that they don’t truly reflect the real probability of success.
On the contrary, the parlays can be positive when:
- Correlated Bets: Some sportsbooks don’t properly adjust for correlated outcomes. Correlated outcomes in sports betting refer to two or more events whose results are statistically related, meaning the outcome of one event significantly affects the probability of the other occurring.
- Reduced Vig Promotions: Some sportsbooks offer boosted odds or lower vig on parlays, potentially making them +EV.
- Sharp Betting in Weaker Markets: If bettors can find value across niche sports or props, some parlays may yield +EV in markets with inefficient pricing.
Live Betting and EV Opportunities
Live (in-play) betting allows you to place wagers as a game unfolds, opening up real-time opportunities to find positive expected value (+EV) bets. Unlike pre-match betting, live markets constantly adjust to game flow. For instance, changes in pace, possession, or team energy often signal a turning point.
Betting just before odds (bookmakers) react allows bettors to capitalize on undervalued opportunities, giving them an edge. To succeed, bettors should compare live odds across multiple sportsbooks, use statistical models, and monitor real-time game data. Tools like live odds comparison sites or analytics platforms can help identify mispriced bets.
A clear strategy and quick reaction time are essential. Tracking your bets and managing your bankroll, using methods like flat betting or the Kelly Criterion, will help ensure long-term profitability.
To sum it all up, Campeonbet suggests:
- Fast Odds adjustments & Market Overreaction
- Exploiting Gaps in Information
- Real-Time Data Insight
- Momentum Shifts
- Act Fast, Manage Bankroll
Bankroll Impact & Risk of Ruin
Identifying positive EV bets means that bettors can evaluate the odds provided by bookmakers.
Consistent +EV (positive expected value) betting leads to long-term bankroll growth. When a bettor consistently places bets with a positive expected value, they are mathematically more likely to profit over time, despite short-term variance. This strategy works best when applied systematically with solid bankroll management.
Risk of Ruin (RoR) is a critical concept for small bankrolls and refers to the probability of losing an entire bankroll due to variance or poor staking strategies. Small bankrolls can’t withstand extended losing streaks, while betting too aggressively increases Risk of Ruin, even with +EV bets. Using techniques like the Kelly Criterion helps optimize bet sizes to maximize growth while minimizing ruin risk.
Bettors need to be able to identify profitable opportunities while avoiding decisions influenced by emotions, which can jeopardize their bankroll. Campeonbet suggests the following:
- Bankroll management
- Identify profit opportunities (tools)
- Avoid emotional betting
- Keep betting records
Tools for EV Calculation
To calculate the expected value, you multiply each possible outcome by its probability and then sum those results. Calculating Expected Value (EV) doesn’t require advanced math, but using the right tools makes it faster and more accurate. There are many web-based tools available that let users input probabilities and outcomes to get instant EV results. Here are some tools and methods to simplify EV calculations:
- Excel or Google Sheets
Bettors can take advantage of Excel Sheets by creating custom EV calculators in order to keep manual tracking of data. For instance, there can be separate columns to keep notes for selections, odds, implied probability, the estimated probability, and the EV per bet. This way, bettors can keep track of significant data, such as positive +EV bets, that can lead to strategic forecasting and betting moves.
- Python scripts
Python scripts are a powerful tool for calculating Expected Value (EV) in betting. Using Python, bettors can automate EV computations, handle large datasets, and run simulations for better forecasting. This tool is ideal for advanced users, and it offers libraries that make EV calculations efficient, especially when working with large datasets.
Integrating Value Betting into Your Betting Strategy
A well-structured betting strategy revolves around Expected Value (EV), which is the key to long-term profitability. Incorporating EV into your betting approach can help you make smarter decisions, protect your bankroll, and maximize your edge over time. Here’s how to achieve that:
Be Consistent with EV Positive Bets
The key to a successful EV-based strategy is consistency. Even if individual bets have modest expected returns, placing those kinds of bets consistently leads to profit over time. This is because the math behind EV favors volume: the more +EV bets you place, the more likely your actual results will reflect the positive expectation.
A good piece of advice we at Campeonbet can offer is to avoid chasing losses or placing bets without value just to stay active. Bettors must remain disciplined and only wager when the numbers are in their favor.
Placing +EV bets consistently, even with small expected returns, sets the foundation for steady, long-term bankroll growth.
Combine Value Betting with Bankroll Management
Even the best +EV bets can go wrong in the short term due to variance. That’s why bankroll management is essential. Two simple, effective methods are:
- Flat Betting: It is the act of wagering the same fixed amount on each bet. The flat staking strategy, also known as fixed staking, involves placing a bet that represents one “unit,” which is typically 1% of the total bankroll. The value of a unit can vary from person to person; for example, it could be €10 for one person and €100 for another. This approach protects bettors from big swings and keeps the bankroll stable.
- Kelly Criterion: A formula that helps determine the optimal stake size based on your edge and odds. It balances risk and reward.
By pairing EV with proper staking, you reduce the Risk of Ruin, even with the help of a Risk of Ruin calculation. This ensures that bettors avoid over-betting, as too much exposure increases that factor.
Focus on Undervalued Markets (Props, Niche Leagues)
Some markets offer better +EV opportunities due to weaker lines and slower odd updates. Major leagues and high-profile events tend to have sharp, well-balanced odds due to intense scrutiny from both bookmakers and experienced bettors. In contrast, niche leagues and player props often present valuable opportunities. Because these markets attract less attention, bookmakers are more likely to misprice outcomes. This can create a greater chance for finding +EV bets. So it is wise to specialize in these undervalued markets, where the odds are less efficient and the gap between bookmakers and informed bettors is smaller.
